Climate Research News

India will not accept any emission-reduction target – period. This is a non-negotiable stand. Jairam Ramesh, Indian Environment Minister, 30 June 2009. Financial Times, 1st July 2009.

The European Union risks driving industry out of the region if it continues to push for deeper cuts in carbon dioxide emissions than other economies, according to the chief executive of Eon, one of the world’s biggest renewable energy companies. Wulf Bernotat, Eon’s chief executive, told the Financial Times that the EU was imposing higher energy costs on its industry than competing regions. Ed Crooks, Financial Times, 30 June 2009.

July 2nd, 2009 | Tags: Climate Policy, Jobs | Category: Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The aerosol haze has long plagued the Arctic, but scientists are only now taking stock of a different and potentially uglier dimension of soot. As its name would suggest, black carbon absorbs sunlight. These particles heat the atmosphere while aloft; when they settle on the snow, they hasten its melting. This exposes the dark land and water, which absorb more of the sun’s energy and thereby drive up the region’s temperature. Recent research suggests that black carbon could be responsible for a large fraction of the Arctic warming. Soot also takes a toll elsewhere. In southeast Asia, studies suggest that it is choking the moisture supply for the Indian monsoons and contributing to the retreat of mountain glaciers that provide fresh water for more than a billion people.

These dark particles, the major constituents of soot, are the legacy of incomplete combustion in diesel engines, coal power plants, agricultural burning and wildfires far to the south. Prevailing winds sweep black carbon and other pollutants into the Arctic, where they circulate in a dirty yellow haze until storms wash them out of the air.

At this point, scientists lack enough data to definitively conclude how strongly black carbon is affecting the climate.

Drew Shindell, a modeller at the Goddard Institute, recently used a coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model to reconstruct twentieth-century influences on climate, or forcings, with and without black carbon. His results suggest that increases in black carbon from Asia and reductions in sulphate pollution have caused about 45% of the observed warming in the Arctic. In Ramanathan’s global assessment, the forcing from black carbon equals 0.9 watts per square metre, which is more than the forcing from methane and 55% of that from CO2.

Jacobson estimates that altogether, the climate has warmed 0.75–0.85°C and black carbon is responsible for 0.25°C of that.

“In other words, you could control up to 30% of global warming if you could control soot,” he says. Given that black carbon has its strongest effect in the Arctic, he suggests that such a strategy could slow sea-ice retreat until international controls on greenhouse gases kick in.

Extracts taken from the Nature News Feature: ‘Atmospheric science: Climate’s smoky spectre’

July 2nd, 2009 | Tags: Aerosols, Black Carbon, Climate Change | Category: News | Comments (1)

Clean-energy research and engineering posts could be poised for a growth spurt in the United States if a predicted ‘green-job’ explosion becomes reality. But some critics suggest that green jobs — those with a role in reducing waste and pollution and benefiting the environment — are replacing other jobs and are costly to create.

Green jobs growing, but destroying others?

Published in Nature 459, 1156 (24 June 2009) | 10.1038/nj7250-1156a

July 2nd, 2009 | Tags: Climate Policy, Jobs | Category: News | Leave a comment

Henrik Svensmark et al have a new GRL paper in press entitled: ‘Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds’

The Abstract states:

Close passages of coronal mass ejections from the sun are signaled at the Earth’s surface by Forbush decreases in cosmic ray counts. We find that low clouds contain less liquid water following Forbush decreases (FDs), and for the most influential events the liquid water in the oceanic atmosphere can diminish by as much as 7%. Cloud water content as gauged by the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) reaches a minimum around 7 days after the Forbush minimum in cosmic rays, and so does the fraction of low clouds seen by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and in the International Satellite Cloud Climate Project (ISCCP). Parallel observations by the aerosol robotic network AERONET reveal falls in the relative abundance of fine aerosol particles which, in normal circumstances, could have evolved into cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Thus a link between the sun, cosmic rays, aerosols, and liquid-water clouds appears to exist on a global scale.

The paper concludes:

Our results show global-scale evidence of conspicuous influences of solar variability on cloudiness and aerosols. Irrespective of the detailed mechanism, the loss of ions from the air during FDs reduces the cloud liquid water content over the oceans. So marked is the response to relatively small variations in the total ionization, we suspect that a large fraction of Earth’s clouds could be controlled by ionization. Future work should estimate how large a volume of the Earth’s atmosphere is involved in the ion process that leads to the changes seen in CCN and its importance for the Earth’s radiation budget. From solar activity to cosmic ray ionization to aerosols and liquid-water clouds, a causal chain appears to operate on a global scale.

Svensmark, H., T. Bondo, and J. Svensmark (2009),

Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds,

Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2009GL038429, in press.

(accepted 17 June 2009)

July 2nd, 2009 | Tags: Climate Change, Clouds, Cosmic Rays, Solar Activity | Category: News | Comments (2)

A new paper has been published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics by Jean-Louis Le Mouël, Elena Blanter, Mikhail Shnirman, and Vincent Courtillot, entitled: ‘Evidence for solar forcing in variability of temperatures and pressures in Europe.’

The Abstract states:

Daily temperature and pressure series from 55 European meteorological stations covering the 20th century are analyzed. The overall temperature mean displays a sharp minimum near 1940 and a step-like jump near 1987. We evaluate the evolution of disturbances of these series using mean squared inter-annual variations and “lifetimes”. The decadal to secular evolutions of solar activity and temperature disturbances display similar signatures over the 20th century. Because of heterogeneity of the climate system response to solar forcing, regional and seasonal approaches are key to successful identification of these signatures. Most of the solar response is governed by the winter months, as best seen near the Atlantic Ocean. Intensities of disturbances vary by factors in excess of 2, underlining a role for the Sun as a significant forcing factor of European atmospheric variations. We speculate about the possible origin of these solar signatures. The last figure of the paper exemplifies its main results.

The paper concludes:

In concluding, we find increasingly strong evidence of a clear solar signature in a number of climatic indicators in Europe, strengthening the earlier conclusions of a study that included stations from the United States (Le Mouël et al., 2008). With the recent downturn of both solar activity and global temperatures, the debated correlations we suggested in Le Mouël et al. (2005), which appeared to stop in the 1980s, actually might extend to the present. The role of the Sun in global and regional climate change should be re-assessed and reasonable physical mechanisms are in sight.

July 1st, 2009 | Category: News | Comments (4)

A new paper has been published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society titled ‘Tropical Cyclone Damages in China: 1983 to 2006″ by Zhang et al. available here in PDF. The paper finds no trends in either tropical cyclone landfalls or in normalized damage.

The paper concludes:

The direct economic losses and casualties caused by landfalling tropical cyclones in China during 1983–2006 are examined using the dataset released by the Department of Civil Affairs of China. . . The direct economic losses trended upward significantly over the past 24 yr. However, the trend disappears if considering the rapid increase of the annual total GDP of China, suggesting that the upward trend in direct economic losses is a result of Chinese economic development. There is no significant trend in tropical cyclone casualties over the past 24 yr.

As Roger Pielke Jr aptly points out on his blog:

What does this mean? This means everywhere that scholars have looked and published results in the peer-reviewed literature (including the United States, Caribbean, Central America, Mexico, China, India, non-China East Asia, and Australia), there have been no trends identified over the periods of record in either landfalling tropical storms or their damage.

Even though this is what the peer reviewed literature says, acknowledging as much is enough to get you labeled a “denier.” We do live in interesting times.

July 1st, 2009 | Tags: Hurricanes, Tropical Cyclones | Category: News | Leave a comment

A new pamphlet, to be placed in every public library in the country, warns that the UK faces summer heat-related deaths, sea level rises and food shortages by the end of the century as a result of global warming.

But ordinary citizens can make a difference by making simple changes to their lives such as hanging out clothes to dry rather than using a tumble dryer, cutting food waste, taking showers rather than baths and switching off the television at night. The leaflet also gives advice on more costly changes people can make such as insulating their home and using energy-saving light bulbs.

telegraph.co.uk: ‘Government pamphlet urges people to walk to work to stop climate change’

July 1st, 2009 | Tags: Climate Alarmism, Politics | Category: News | Leave a comment

President Obama’s Energy Secretary Steven Chu is at it again. Fresh off his declarations in May claiming computer model predictions as evidence of a certain climate catastrophe, (see: Climate Depot Exclusive: Sec. Chu’s assertions ‘quite simply being proven wrong by the latest climate data’ – April 19, 2009), he has now gotten more bold confidently predicts a certain climate catastrophe by the year 2109, when he and everyone who hears his warning today will be conveniently DEAD!

Chu told a conference in California his latest prognostication. “At no other time in the history of science have we been able to say what the future will be 100 years from now,” Chu, the soothsayer, declared according to a June 28, 2009 article in Palo Alto Online News.

The question looms: Shouldn’t Energy Sec. Chu be touting these scary predictions of the year 2100 on a boardwalk somewhere with a full deck of Tarot Cards?

Chu continued: “For the first time in human history, science has shown that we are altering the destiny of our planet…It’s quite alarming. Every year looks more alarming. … An irony of climate change is that the ones who will be hurt the most are the innocent — those yet to be born.”

Sec. Chu is exactly the reason many scientists are now reporting that man-made global warming fear promotion has degenerated to the level of astrology.

Japanese scientist Kanya Kusano, a Program Director and Group Leader for the Earth Simulator at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science & Technology, has publicly declared that man-made climate fear promotion is now akin to “ancient astrology.”

Mathematical physicist Frank J. Tipler, Professor of Mathematical Physics, astrophysics, at Tulane University, agrees with Kusano. “Whether the ice caps melt, or expand — whatever happens — the AGW theorists claim it confirms their theory. A perfect example of a pseudo-science like astrology,” Tipler wrote on May 15, 2009. “It is obvious that anthropogenic global warming is not science at all, because a scientific theory makes non-obvious predictions which are then compared with observations that the average person can check for himself,” Tipler explained. As we know from our own observations, AGW theory has spectacularly failed to do this. The theory has predicted steadily increasing global temperatures, and this has been refuted by experience. NOW the global warmers claim that the Earth will enter a cooling period,” Tipler wrote.

It is no wonder that the environmental movement is urging its troops to no longer use the term “global warming,” as temperatures fail to cooperate. (See: NYT obtains enviro strategy memo: Stop use of term global warming! )

Instead, climate change or “global weirding” — as New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman has proposed – are preferred. It is no wonder, that with climate change or “global weirding,” any weather event can now be linked to man-made global warming. Drought, flood, storms, tornado, hurricane? Simply more evidence of “global weirding.” Heatwaves, record cold, blizzards? Even more evidenced of “global weirding.” Therefore, anything that happens is further “proof” of man-made global warming.

After all, if every weather event that happens fits your global warming hypothesis or theory, the theory cannot be invalidated by real world observations or data. Climate fear promoters are now morphing to the level of the daily horoscope in your local newspaper. Horoscopes are worded in such a vague manner that essentially anything that happens to you that day can be touted as “proof” the horoscope was correct.

UK Professor Philip Stott has mocked today’s climate fears by comparing such fears to ancient civilizations. “From the Babylon of Gilgamesh to the post-Eden of Noah, every age has viewed climate change cataclysmically, as retribution for human greed and sinfulness,” Stott, an emeritus professor of Biogeography from the University of London wrote.

President Obama has also entered the “climate astrology” movement now. President Obama made the completely scientifically indefensible claim that the Waxman-Markey climate bill would stop global temperature increases of up to 5 degrees! Obama said on June 25, “A long-term benefit is we’re leaving a planet to our children that isn’t four or five degrees hotter.” How can the President of the U.S. can be so misinformed and full of such hubris that he somehow believes he can sign a bill that acts as a thermostat for Earth’s temperature?

President Obama seems so imbued with his ability to control climate that during the 2008 presidential campaign he prognosticated his presidency would be “the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.” (For latest scientific data refuting sea level rise fears see here.) President Obama has also claimed he can “block the Sun’s rays to end global warming.” Sadly, this has truly become the new age of “Climate Astrology.”

Climate Depot: Obama’s ‘Climate Astrologer’ Sec. Chu: ‘At no other time in the history of science have we been able to say what the future will be 100 years from now’  

June 29th, 2009 | Tags: Climate Alarmism, Climate Policy | Category: News | Leave a comment

The first post on Roger Pielke Jr’s new blog on 14th June looked at CO2 emissions targets in terms of absolute emissions:

If the world wants to achieve an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions below 1990 levels this really means returning to 1939 levels of emissions.

For the US, a 17% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions below 2005 levels (such as in the Waxman-Markey Bill) represents a return to about 1990 levels. An 80% reduction represents a return to 1905 levels.

For the United Kingdom, a reduction of 34% from 1990-(its 2022 interim target) represents a return to carbon dioxide emissions of 1896 and an 80% reduction (its 2050 target) represents a return to emissions of 1849. (Wow!)

You can calculate other absolute baselines with the dataset here.

June 29th, 2009 | Tags: Climate Policy, Global CO2 Emissions | Category: Opinion | Leave a comment