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Putting Nonsense Above Science
The journal PNAS has a couple of new papers that use computer models to make unverfiable alarmist predictions 100 and 1000 years into the future.
First up we have ‘Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population’ by Jenouvrier et al.
The Abstract states:
Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth’s climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.
The BBC News website gleefully reports: ‘Emperor penguins face extinction’
Emperor penguins, whose long treks across Antarctic ice to mate have been immortalised by Hollywood, are heading towards extinction, scientists say. Based on predictions of sea ice extent from climate change models, the penguins are likely to see their numbers plummet by 95% by 2100.
Hmmm! I wonder how this fits in with the record high Antarctic sea ice extent for the satellite era in 2007?
Moving on, the NOAA press release for the Susan Solomon et al PNAS paper is here.
The BBC News website reports the findings with the headline:
Global warming is ‘irreversible’
A team of environmental researchers in the US has warned many effects of climate change are irreversible.
The scientists concluded global temperatures could remain high for 1,000 years, even if carbon emissions can somehow be halted.
“People have imagined that if we stopped emitting carbon dioxide the climate would go back to normal in 100 years, 200 years – that’s not true,” said researcher Susan Solomon, the lead author of the report, quoted by AP news agency.
Now, this is good news. Can we stop wasting money and effort pretending that we can control the weather or climate? Let’s get on with enjoying ourselves before we drown, fry or freeze, or all three simultaneously.