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Hurricane-Climate Link Statistically Erroneous
Holland and Webster (2007) claimed to have definitively linked hurricane activity to greenhouse gas emissions (pdf). However, a new paper published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) demonstrates that the results of Holland and Webster are statistically invalid. The paper is entitled: ‘Regimes or Cycles in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic’ by Sim D. Aberson of NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida.
The Abstract states:
The important role of the correct use of statistics in the atmospheric sciences literature is once again emphasized. Despite previous work on this topic, statistical techniques, even very simple ones, continue to be misused or altogether neglected, with the inevitable result of misleading or erroneous conclusions. An example concerning the impact of global climate change and hurricane activity is presented.
The paper concludes:
Though the results of HW07 are unlikely to be correct, this does not necessarily suggest that the alternative hypothesis—that the time series shows a cyclical pattern—is correct. The time series only has two full oscillations and is too short to test the likelihood that it is a cycle. Unfortunately, even if the data were completely accurate, decades may pass before the series is long enough to make any definitive statements on this topic. Nevertheless, the clear need for timely scientific results should not be a reason for shortcuts in the scientific process; correct statistical analyses must be performed to determine the likelihood that the hypothesis tested is valid.
CRN note to Naomi Oreskes - the Abstract contains the phrase ‘Global Climate Change.’
CRN note to Al Gore – stop claiming that hurricanes and global warming are linked.
Prometheus: ‘Aberson on Holland/Webster’
March 2nd, 2009 at 7:36 am
Dear Fellow Researchers,
I have just assembled a CD with a “.pdf” that introduces a new concept called “Irradiance Deficit”. It shows that anthropogenic, CO2-based Global Warming is literally impossible.
The file is too large to send by e-mail. Do you have a street address to which I can send it?
My e-mail is: nmgom@earthlink.net
Thank you.
Truly yours,
Bernie Kressner