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New Paper Demonstrates Anthropogenic Contribution to Global Warming Overestimated, Solar Contribution Underestimated
A new paper has been published in GRL by Scafetta and Willson entitled: ‘ACRIM-gap and TSI trend issue resolved using a surface magnetic flux TSI proxy model’
The Abstract states:
“The ACRIM-gap (1989.5-1991.75) continuity dilemma for satellite TSI observations is resolved by bridging the satellite TSI monitoring gap between ACRIM1 and ACRIM2 results with TSI derived from Krivova et al.’s (2007) proxy model based on variations of the surface distribution of solar magnetic flux. ‘Mixed’ versions of ACRIM and PMOD TSI composites are constructed with their composites’ original values except for the ACRIM gap, where Krivova modeled TSI is used to connect ACRIM1 and ACRIM2 results. Both ‘mixed’ composites demonstrate a significant TSI increase of 0.033%/decade between the solar activity minima of 1986 and 1996, comparable to the 0.037% found in the ACRIM composite. The finding supports the contention of Willson (1997) that the ERBS/ERBE results are flawed by uncorrected degradation during the ACRIM gap and refutes the Nimbus7/ERB ACRIM gap adjustment Fröhlich and Lean (1998) employed in constructing the PMOD.”
The authors state in their conclusions that:
“This finding has evident repercussions for climate change and solar physics. Increasing TSI between 1980 and 2000 could have contributed significantly to global warming during the last three decades [Scafetta and West, 2007, 2008]. Current climate models [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007] have assumed that the TSI did not vary significantly during the last 30 years and have therefore underestimated the solar contribution and overestimated the anthropogenic contribution to global warming.”
Keywords
* total solar irradiance (TSI)
* irradiance variability
* irradiance trend
Scafetta N., R. C. Willson (2009), ACRIM-gap and TSI trend issue resolved using a surface magnetic flux TSI proxy model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05701, doi:10.1029/2008GL036307.
March 13th, 2009 at 5:31 am
Must be in the pay of Exxon, to express such an opinion questioning AGW. Burn them at the stake in Exxon Super Unleaded for thier heresy.
Meanwhile here in the UK the contribution of the sun is never questioned. On the South Coast of the UK we have experienced -8C this winter ( which is not that unusual) and no doubt will go to about 32C during the summer. Despite this natural summer winter max min temperature range nobody seems to question slight variations in it other than we must wickedly be doing something. I suspect minor variations in the suns output have a lot more to do with climate change than slight increases in trace gasses– hey but I am middle aged and stupid
March 15th, 2009 at 9:50 pm
Here’s how Frohlich and Lean did it.
Figure 1 makes it seem reasonable.
Figure 4 and 5 show that it’s not so reasonable after all. Notice how Acrim 1 (and also Acrim 2) cuts out at solar maximum – as if there were a theshold of solar activity that overwhelms the sensor.
It reminds me for all the world of a Satellite version of tree ring temps.
March 29th, 2009 at 10:34 pm
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August 24th, 2009 at 6:25 am
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November 11th, 2009 at 10:59 am
This is just one of many papers…
450 Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism of “Man-Made” Global Warming
http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html