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New Paper: Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Air Temperature Variability: 1840-2007
A new paper has been published in the Journal of Climate by Jason Box, Lei Yang, David Bromwich, and Le-Sheng Bai entitled: ‘Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Air Temperature Variability: 1840–2007′
Journal of Climate
Volume 22, Issue 14 (July 2009)
Article: pp. 4029–4049
The Abstract states:
Meteorological station records and regional climate model output are combined to develop a continuous 168-yr (1840–2007) spatial reconstruction of monthly, seasonal, and annual mean Greenland ice sheet near-surface air temperatures. Independent observations are used to assess and compensate for systematic errors in the model output. Uncertainty is quantified using residual nonsystematic error. Spatial and temporal temperature variability is investigated on seasonal and annual time scales. It is found that volcanic cooling episodes are concentrated in winter and along the western ice sheet slope. Interdecadal warming trends coincide with an absence of major volcanic eruptions. Year 2003 was the only year of 1840–2007 with a warm anomaly that exceeds three standard deviations from the 1951–80 base period. The annual whole ice sheet 1919–32 warming trend is 33% greater in magnitude than the 1994–2007 warming. The recent warming was, however, stronger along western Greenland in autumn and southern Greenland in winter. Spring trends marked the 1920s warming onset, while autumn leads the 1994–2007 warming. In contrast to the 1920s warming, the 1994–2007 warming has not surpassed the Northern Hemisphere anomaly. An additional 1.0°–1.5°C of annual mean warming would be needed for Greenland to be in phase with the Northern Hemispheric pattern. Thus, it is expected that the ice sheet melt rates and mass deficit will continue to grow in the early twenty-first century as Greenland’s climate catches up with the Northern Hemisphere warming trend and the Arctic climate warms according to global climate model predictions.
The full paper can be found here.
This is another paper that demonstrates that the Arctic warming in the early part of the 20th Century was greater (by one-third) that the current warming, but it is written in an AGW and climate model friendly way.
H/T: The Reference Frame
August 28th, 2009 at 9:49 am
What a joke. “Watch out!! We’ve made a prediction that goes against all the real world evidence. But it’s going to happen anyway so we better prepare for it.”
What if Greenland’s climate doesn’t catch up? What then? Oh ya… I forgot. Just in case it does we have to act now. Because if we don’t it will be too late to repair. Even the IPCC said it would take millennia for Greenland to melt.
MrC
December 17th, 2009 at 2:35 am
Aha, measurements doesnt match IPCC Religion.
-Is it peer reviewed?
-Can we hide the decline?
-Use some special AlGoreRytm?
December 17th, 2009 at 2:43 am
yes – peer reviewed, but you have to include: “Thus, it is expected that the ice sheet melt rates and mass deficit will continue to grow in the early twenty-first century as Greenland’s climate catches up with the Northern Hemisphere warming trend and the Arctic climate warms according to global climate model predictions.” Nothing to do with the results of the paper, but it helps to get it past the CRUminals.
March 27th, 2010 at 12:15 pm
[...] of the world’s ice, or the equivalent of a 21-foot rise in sea level should it all melt. Air temperatures over the Greenland ice sheet have increased by about 4 degrees since 1991, which most scientists attribute to a build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. [...]