Comments
Pielke Jr on NOAA Explaining 10 Years of Non-Warming
Caption to Figure 2.8a: Monthly global mean temperature anomalies (with respect to 1961–90 climatology) since 1975, derived from the combined land and ocean temperature dataset HadCRUT3 (gray curve). (top blue curve) The global mean after the effect of ENSO that has been subtracted is also shown, along with (bottom blue curve, offset by 0.5°C) the ENSO contribution itself. Least squares linear trends in the ENSO and ENSO-removed components for 1999–2008 and their two std dev uncertainties are shown in orange.
Roger Pielke Jr.’s Blog: NOAA Explains the Global Temperature “Slowdown”
July 29th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
My comment on RP Jr’s post was:
“But in the Lower Troposphere it is now twelve years without warming, not ten!
http://digitaldiatribes.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/uahcooling200906.jpg
And hardly cherry picking-it ends coming into an El Nino and begins coming into one. (in case you are wondering, RSS doesn’t make a big difference, since they actually show more cooling since UAH started using AQUA than UAH does). How often does a twelve year interval of non warming occur in models in the LT? After all, that part of the atmosphere is generally expected to warm faster than the surface. I have to say that I think that the best argument for not rejecting alarm on this basis is that of Kyle Swanson that this may indicate a highly sensitive system, but I’m not terribly impressed by the logic.
But IMAO the models have failed.”
No one seems to have pointed out any flaws in my logic. Of course, by NOAA’s test and assuming in applies equally to model LT trends, we are still three years away from “rejecting” the models. But I personally think that the LT output probably shows such long non warming trends less often than the surface output. Which means that we may already be beyond the rejection threshold.