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China’s Carbon Intensity Con
China has made a pre-Copenhagen ‘pledge’ to reduce its carbon intensity of GDP by 40 to 45% by 2020. What’s the bottom line? As Roger Pileke Jr explains:
A 40-45% cut in carbon intensity in China is essentially business-as-usual as projected by the IEA. According to the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 (p. 350), here are China’s GDP and CO2 projections under its BAU “reference scenario” (with GDP in 2008 PPP dollars):
2007 — 6.1 GtC and $7.6T
2020 — 9.6 GtC and $18.8T
Bottom line? China’s decarbonization target is indeed very similar to some versions of BAU, suggesting a lack of ambition. At the same time these versions of BAU already have rapid rates of decarbonization built in, so much so that I am skeptical about their realism. Even so, discussions about climate these days are more focused on politics than policy, so the exact details of China’s emissions policy probably matter less than how its promises are perceived and spun in the negotiating process.
As always, a picture is worth a 1000 words:
