Northern Ireland hit a new low of -9.5C (15F) at Lough Fea, Co Tyrone, and in Wales, a record minimum of -18C (0F) was reached at Llysdinam, in Powys.

Snow is still falling in Scotland, Northern Ireland and north-east England, and Edinburgh, Glasgow and Derry airports have been closed.

Forecasters say the cold spell will continue well into next week.

BBC News website, 28th November 2010: Coldest November night on record in parts of UK

Bouwer, L.M. (in press). Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3092.1

Abstract

The increasing impact of natural disasters over recent decades has been well documented, especially the direct economic losses and losses that were insured. Claims are made by some that climate change has caused more losses, but others assert that increasing exposure due to population and economic growth has been a much more important driver. Ambiguity exists today, as the causal link between climate change and disaster losses has not been addressed in a systematic manner by major scientific assessments. Here I present a review and analysis of recent quantitative studies on past increases in weather disaster losses and the role of anthropogenic climate change. Analyses show that although economic losses from weather related hazards have increased, anthropogenic climate change so far did not have a significant impact on losses from natural disasters. The observed loss increase is caused primarily by increasing exposure and value of capital at risk. This finding is of direct importance for studies on impacts from extreme weather and for disaster policy. Studies that project future losses may give a better indication of the potential impact of climate change on disaster losses and needs for adaptation, than the analysis of historical losses.

Capsule summary

Climate change is often seen as the culprit of increasing economic losses from weather disasters. The scientific literature however shows that there are other causes up to now.

H/T Roger Pielke Jr’s Blog: Disaster Losses and Climate Change

Despite this strong evidence for a warming planet, greenhouse gas forcing fails to explain the 2010 heat wave over western Russia. The natural process of atmospheric blocking, and the climate impacts induced by such blocking, are the principal cause for this heat wave. It is not known whether, or to what exent, greenhouse gas emissions may affect the frequency or intensity of blocking during summer. It is important to note that observations reveal no trend in a daily frequency of July blocking over the period since 1948, nor is there an appreciable trend in the absolute values of upper tropospheric summertime heights over western Russia for the period since 1900.

The indications are that the current blocking event is intrinsic to the natural variability of summer climate in this region, a region which has a climatological vulnerability to blocking and associated heat waves (e.g., 1960, 1972, 1988). A high index value for blocking days is not a necessary condition for high July surface temperature over western Russia—the warm summers of 1981, 1999, 2001, and 2002 did not experience an unusual number of blocking days.

A clear understanding of the causes for the 2010 Russian heat wave is important for informing decision makers and the public on whether they need to transition from a preparedness mode of precautionary responses to an adaptation mode involving investment responses and actions. Our assessment indicates that, owing to the mainly natural cause for this heat wave, it is very unlikely that a similar event will recur next summer or in the immediate future (next decade). Whereas this phenomena has been principally related to a natural extreme event, its impacts may very well forebode the impact that a projected warming of surface temperatures could have by the end of the 21st Century due to greenhouse gas increases.

Watch Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction: Russian heat wave due to dramatic changes in solar activity – Interview with forecaster Piers Corbyn

See also: One of Our Hemispheres is Missing:

The earth’s southern hemisphere is now in the winter season, and it is proving to be a severe one. There have been many deaths of people, animals, fish, and crops. But you haven’t heard about that from the northern hemisphere media.

As far as the media is concerned, there is no southern hemisphere. All the media coverage is about fires in Russia, Arctic ice melting, glaciers calving icebergs, heat waves on the U. S. east coast, and other “weather” occurrences up north. So let me bring you up to date on the highlights from down south…….

Background

Based on 2000–08 data, extreme weather events are responsible for about 0.05% of all global deaths (31,700 deaths vs. 58.8 million, annually). That is, despite the media attention to such events, extreme weather events have a minor impact on global public health.
Long term (1900–2008) data show that average annual deaths and death rates from all such events declined by 93% and 98%, respectively, since cresting in the 1920s (Figure 1). These declines occurred despite a vast increase in the populations at risk and more complete coverage of extreme weather events (Figure 2).

Read the entire Global Warming Policy Foundation article here.

Abstract:

Winter 2009/10 had anomalously large snowfall in the central parts of the United States and in northwestern Europe. Connections between seasonal snow anomalies and the large scale atmospheric circulation are explored. An El Niño state is associated with positive snowfall anomalies in the southern and central United States and along the eastern seaboard and negative anomalies to the north. A negative NAO causes positive snow anomalies across eastern North America and in northern Europe. It is argued that increased snowfall in the southern U.S. is contributed to by a southward displaced storm track but further north, in the eastern U.S. and northern Europe, positive snow anomalies arise from the cold temperature anomalies of a negative NAO. These relations are used with observed values of NINO3 and the NAO to conclude that the negative NAO and El Niño event were responsible for the northern hemisphere snow anomalies of winter 2009/10.

The Earth Institute, Columbia University, News Release: Converging Weather Patterns Caused Last Winter’s Huge Snows

EurekAlert: Converging weather patterns caused last winter’s huge snows

David Robinson, a climate scientist at Rutgers University who was not involved in the research, said the study fills an important role in educating the public about the difference between freak weather events and human-induced climate change.

“When the public experiences abnormal weather, they want to know what’s causing it,” he said. “This paper explains what happened, and why global warming was not really involved. It helps build credibility in climate science.”

CRN Comment: This paper should embarrass climate alarmists who used the ‘consistent with fallacy’ to blame ‘global warming.’

Woodlands carpeted with the distinctive flowers are one of the sights of spring – but experts say the flowers are about three weeks late this year.

Magnolias and daffodils are also blooming late this year because of the unusually sustained cold weather the UK has suffered in the past few months.

However Easter Sunday was surprisingly sunny and with forecasters predicting a fine week of weather ahead with temperatures up to 15C, it looks like spring has finally sprung.

According to the National Trust bluebells, which require light and warmth coming into the forest floor to trigger growth, are normally at their height around late April or early May.

In recent years they have been coming into bloom earlier as a result of milder winters and early springs – peaking as early as April 1 in west Cornwall where they flower first.

But with a cold spring, which has seen snow hitting many parts of the country in the last few days, bluebells are not likely to be in full bloom until around mid May this year.

If so, it will be latest peak in flowering for the plant since 1996, the National Trust said.

And rather than the usual ‘Mexican wave’ of bluebell displays spreading up from the south west towards more northern and eastern parts of the country, the woodland flowers are more likely to bloom at once in a shorter burst.

The arrival of displays could also be patchy and dependent on where the woods are located – such as high up or on exposed ground.

Daily Mail: Weather set to improve… just as we all return to work

By combining the temperatures of January and December it showed they were the coldest since 1914 – the year data started being logged.

Elsewhere, it was the coldest December and January in Northern Ireland since 1962/63 and the coldest in England and Wales since 1981/82.

Sub-zero temperatures and snow blew into the UK from mid-December.

The average minimum overnight temperature for January is usually at freezing point, but in Scotland it was regularly below -5C.

Salt grit shortages were reported throughout December and January and the tiny Highlands village of Altnaharra recorded one January night temperature of -22.3C.

Although Scotland has had the coldest combined December and January on record, temperatures would need to go lower to beat the coldest two month winter combination.

January and February in 1963 was the coldest on record north of the border.

BBC News website: Scotland records coldest winter

The view from the front of my house:

As the Telegraph reports on 3rd February: ‘Snow is consistent with global warming, say scientists’

“Britain may be in the grip of the coldest winter for 30 years and grappling with up to a foot of snow in some places but the extreme weather is entirely consistent with global warming, claim scientists.”

Interestingly, the Telegraph article quotes former Head of Communications at The Royal Society, Bob Ward, who seems to have moved to yet another branch of the global warming industry, now spokesman for the Grantham Research Institute for Climate Change at London School of Economics. His previous post was as Director of Global Science Networks at ‘Risk Management Solutions Ltd.’

Of course, heat waves and cold spells can occur during periods of global cooling or warming. While the UK shivers, parts of Australia have been experiencing a heat wave. The record for Adelaide is 46 degrees C (114.98 degrees F), set 70 years ago. The other day it topped 45.5 degrees C (113.9 degrees F). How did much less CO2 cause such high temperatures 70 years ago, and much more CO2 only nearly equal the temperatures today?

We’re going to have to wait and see if the global cooling trend since 2002 will continue, driven by potentially lower solar activity and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which could last for at least another 20 years.

Photo via Caroline McInnes in Adelaide

Met Office Media Release: ‘Trend of mild winters continues’

The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year.

Seasonal forecasts from the Met Office are used by many agencies across government, private and third sectors to help their long-term planning.

Earlier this year, John Hirst, Chief Executive of the Met Office and Michael Lake CBE, Director General of Help the Aged, signed an agreement to explore ways in which the two organisations can actively use weather information to support the health and well-being of older people.

The forecast of another mild winter across the UK has been welcomed by Help the Aged, who work with other agencies to support older people.

Dr. James Goodwin, Head of Research at Help the Aged, said: “The onset of winter causes significant anxiety among many older people. This forecast will assist policy makers to adapt their strategies to ensure that the negative effects of winter weather are reduced as far as possible.”

In contrast to last year’s exceptionally mild winter, this year is likely to feel somewhat colder and although the forecast of a milder winter is good news, we should still be prepared for the risk of colder spells at times.

As Dr Tish Laing-Morton, Clinical Director at the Met Office, explains: “Sudden cold snaps, especially within a generally mild winter, can be a real problem for older people and others such as those with respiratory illnesses. This is why the Met Office has developed our Healthy Outlook service which helps people suffering with COPD successfully manage their condition”.

Full Winter 2008/9 forecast

More about services for health

Notes:

• Our seasonal forecasts indicate how particular seasonal conditions may be more likely than others. The forecast is for the whole season and is not able to forecast specific details about any particular day or location within the season.
• Forecasting skill varies for different weather elements, and from season to season. The skill of our winter forecasts is greater than that of our summer forecast and the skill for temperature is higher than for rainfall.
• The 1971 to 2000 average winter temperature for the UK is 3.7 °C.  The average winter precipitation for the UK is 332 mm.
• Winter 2007/8 saw an average UK mean temperature of 4.9 °C and average UK precipitation of 386 mm
• The winter is taken to be the complete months of December, January and February.
• The winter forecast will be updated monthly throughout the winter. Updates will be published at 10 a.m. on 29 October, 25 November, 22 December and 22 January 2009.
• The Met Office works closely with government departments such as the Department of Health supporting their Keep Warm Keep Well campaign.
• Met Office CE John Hirst and Michael Lake CBE, Director General of Help the Aged, have recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding formalising existing links between the two organisations. The agreement outlines how respective expertise will be deployed to benefit both older people and providers of health and social care. It includes collaboration on a range of issues such as providing warnings of weather likely to exacerbate chronic illnesses as well as the effects of climate change on the older population.

Related post: UK Met Office Attacks Climate Sceptics