In fact, last summer was a wash-out, as correctly predicted by Positive Weather Solutions, which has ‘out-forecast’ the Met Office over the last two years with a string of accurate long-term predictions. And PWS is confident that Britain will indeed see a barbecue summer this year.

PWS said summer 2010 will break records as El Nino, which warms the Pacific Ocean, combines with the effects of the Atlantic jet stream weather pattern and the Azores high pressure region.

The PWS forecast is:

JUNE: Starts with fine weather. Rain mid-month but temperatures warm to very warm. Changeable later in month with fine conditions although some heavy rain to finish.

JULY: Starts unsettled with some rain, then dry through mid-month with warm to very warm temperatures, lots of sunshine and light breeze. Humid towards end of the month with thunderstorms and possible flash floods.

AUGUST: Thunderstorms quickly replaced by unbroken sunshine which may cause record temperatures. Warm mid-month but broken up by unsettled periods. Good weather towards month end before showery, cooler conditions move in.

Read more in the Daily Mail: BBQ summer ahead! (and don’t worry, this time it’s NOT the Met Office forecasting it)

The Arctic could see an increase in temperatures of 28.8F (16C), while parts of sub Saharan Africa and North America would be devastated by an increase in temperature of up to 18F (10C).

Britain’s temperature would rise by the average 7.2F (4C) which would mean Mediterranean summers and an extended growing season for new crops like olives, vines and apricots.

However deaths from heat waves will increase, droughts and floods would become more common, diseases like malaria may spread to Britain and climate change refugees from across the world are likely to head to the country.

And I’ll be the first man on Mars!

Telegraph.co.uk: ‘Met Office: catastrophic climate change could happen within 50 years’

See the Tag ‘Met Office’ for more amusement.

Despite growing evidence that storms in China are getting fiercer, droughts longer and typhoons more deadly, Xiao Ziniu, the director general of the Beijing Climate Centre, said it was too early to determine the level of risk posed by global warming.

“There is no agreed conclusion about how much change is dangerous,” Xiao said. “Whether the climate turns warmer or cooler, there are both positive and negative effects. We are not focusing on what will happen with a one degree or two degree increase, we are looking at what level will be a danger to the environment. In Chinese history, there have been many periods warmer than today.”

Xiao said China had started its own climate modelling programme for the next 100 years aimed at predicting the point when global warming will result in environmental collapse.

His centre will also release yearly climate predictions for China. Even with weather satellites and sophisticated simulation software, Xiao is not overly optimistic about accuracy the initial results.

“Climate prediction has only come into operation in recent years. The accuracy of the prediction is very low because the climate is affected by many mechanisms we do not fully understand.”

The Guardian: China’s top climatologist stays cool over 2C rise

It is too early to determine the level of meteorological risk posed by global warming, says the director-general of the Beijing Climate Centre

“People will say this is global warming disappearing,” he told more than 1500 of the world’s top climate scientists gathering in Geneva at the UN’s World Climate Conference.

“I am not one of the sceptics,” insisted Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University, Germany. “However, we have to ask the nasty questions ourselves or other people will do it.”

Few climate scientists go as far as Latif, an author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. But more and more agree that the short-term prognosis for climate change is much less certain than once thought.

Read the New Scientist article: ‘World’s climate could cool first, warm later’

CRN comment: Well, dramatically overstating the importance of  a role for CO2 in climate change will result in failed forecasts. Told you so! And, it is nonsense to claim that unverifiable long-term forecasts are more reliable.

Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction has written to Peter Mendelson:

To: Lord Peter Mandelson MP, Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills,

1 Victoria Street, London SW1H 0ET, Tel 020 7215 5000;

Acting Prime Minister

10th August 2009

Dear Peter,

Met Office bonuses for failure must be curbed. – The Met Office long range & Climate forecast operation should be called to account and put out to tender.

Congratulations on being acting Prime Minister at present, I note following a smaller holiday party in Corfu than last year.

I am writing to ask that you extend your excellent stand against the culture of bonuses for failure – which pervades certain banking circles – to the UK Met Office and have their failed long range and climate forecasting activity called to account and put out to tender.

The Met Office is engaged in tricky reportage to cover-up its total failure in long range forecasts for this summer, last winter, the previous two summers and world temperature trends over recent years and is awarding staff sizeable bonuses at public expense despite repeated failure.

The BBC/MetOffice recent Review** sneakily talks up irrelevant warm (night) aspects of this July in an attempt to cover-up forecast failure.  They use day plus night averages which of course go up with relatively mild cloudy nights which come with the wet weather.  The Met Office forecast of a ‘barbecue summer’ to any normal person was about daytime temperatures and sun NOT about mild nights due to rain and cloud.  In terms of the key parameters – Rain, Day temp and Sun the Met Office were wrong-wrong-wrong. They should cease their cover-up and admit their summer forecast failed on all counts in every month just as they failed on all counts in every month for the previous 2 summers, for the ice and snow last winter and for annual world temperature trends which are in decline contrary to their ideological insistence that they should be rising ‘unstoppably’.

On the other hand WeatherAction were recently in the news following very successful long range forecasts of Britain & Ireland summer deluges 07, 08 & 09, winter 08/09 ice & snow and world temperature trends downwards; in contrast to the Met Offices failure on all fronts.

WeatherAction could do long range weather forecasts for Britain & Europe and extreme events around the world – and world climate forecasts for the next 100 years – for a very small % of the current Met Office / Hadley Centre / University spending on long range weather and climate prognoses and research and be vastly more reliable.   We have achieved this power – without state support – through our own tireless innovative Research & Development which will change climate science. Surely it is a ‘no-brainer’ that the Met Office be called to account, and its Long Range & Climate service face open competition and be put out to tender.

For details of our forecasts please see first point in information below and attached. You will note that our WeatherAction general forecast of this summer issued 22 Feb accurately describes what has and is taking place whereas the Met Office effort issued in April shows negative skill and power as did all their long range efforts for the last 5 key noteworthy seasons or world trends*. The Met Office score 0/5 on these 5 key forecasts while WeatherAction’s Solar Weather Technique scored 5/5 and forecasted in detail down to weeks and days from months ahead whereas the Met Office resolution was only over a season without sub-definition. (*Summers 07, 08, 09, winter 08/09 & world temperature trends over recent years).

From your position as Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills it is important to understand what I said on BBC News 24 about our advances: It is not a matter of technology but of the application of Physics and equations. Just as computer models of the economy fail so does the Met office approach to long range forecasting. We can predict in detail months ahead how solar particle and magnetic effects modulated by Lunar and other factors cause the Jet stream – the tracks of low pressures – to shift. This is the key to weather type prediction for Britain Ireland and Europe.

Thank you for your attention

Piers Corbyn,  ARCS  FRAS  FRMetS

Information

WeatherAction headline summary for summer 2009 issued 22 Feb 2009:- The full issued forecast had 13 more detailed sub-periods and the later month ahead forecasts had 27 sub-periods.

Summer – June, July & August 2009:

Mostly wet or very wet and generally cool and rather cloudy. Some violent thunderstorms and floods.  West & North wetter than South & SouthEast relative to normal. Some dry fine spells mainly in South & SouthEast

Summer full summary with sub-periods and detailed June, July & August forecasts attached. Weather Action correctly predicted close to double normal rain for many parts of Britain & Ireland this July, which is what happened.

**July Review: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/uk_reviews/newsid_8184000/8184135.stm

- “…Provisionally, it was the wettest July on record over England and Wales (in a series from 1914), being slightly wetter than July 2007 and much wetter than July 2008….”

News reports: The Sun, Sunday Times, Daily Mail, Daily Star, BBCNews24:

Weather staff get ‘accurate’ bonus =

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2578468/Weather-staff-get-accurate-bonus.html The Sun – London,UK Aug6 centre spread – Piers Corbyn, owner of the independent forecasting business WeatherAction, said: “The Met Office forecasts for the last three summers have been completely …

It’s raining bonuses at the Met Office – Times Online Sunday Times front page Aug 9th http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6788803.ece … Piers Corbyn, owner of the independent forecasting business …www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/…/article6788803.ece – Also: http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=3838

It’s raining bonuses over at the Met Office, despite a spate of … ‎http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1205440/Its-raining-bonuses-Met-Office-despite-spate-inaccurate-predictions.html  Piers Corbyn, owner of the independent forecasting business WeatherAction, told the Sunday Times: ‘Met Office forecasts for the last three summers have been …

SEE IN THIS ARTCLE: A Met Office spokesman said its targets were verified by the National Audit Office and did not only apply to forecast accuracy  (Yes Minister! ) Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1205440/Its-raining-bonuses-Met-Office-despite-spate-inaccurate-predictions.html#ixzz0NoAfRbPY

(Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1205440/Its-raining-bonuses-Met-Office-despite-spate-inaccurate-predictions.html#ixzz0Nj1Z5JR5

Reports: BBC News 24 including Met Office /BBC comment & Piers Corbyn’s basic points about the physics of reliable forecasting science in WANews No 49; along with other useful information and links to a New PowerPoint presentation ‘What Does & Does not Cause Climate Change’

29th July 2009 WeatherAction News No 49 = http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=68&c=1  WeatherAction summer forecast success reported on BBCTV 29th July as floods & tornadoes confirm Piers Corbyn’s forecast detail and Met Office admits failure.

23rd July 2009 WeatherAction News No 48= http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=66&c=1 Met Office winter ‘forecast’ 2009-10 attacked as ‘reckless misleading nonsense without scientific basis or skill’. “It should be ignored absolutely. The opposite to whatever the Met Office says in long range has been what happened for the last three years!”

23rd July 2009 WeatherAction News No 47= http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=67&c=1  WeatherAction News 2009 No 47 What Does & Does Not Cause Climate Change and the threat to integrity in science – New PowerPoint Presentation & Letter from Piers Corbyn to Prof Sir Peter Knight, Imperial College Director of Research.

Letters to MPs & ministers including graphs showing general decline in world temperatures this century & links to letters to Gordon Brown 2007 & 2008 re WeatherAction long range forecasts: http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/letter_to_ministers.pdf  Detailed WA forecasts available.

Letter to UN Sec General 14 July 2008

http://www.tech-know.eu/uploads/Letter_UN_Sec_Gen_Ban_Ki-moon.pdf

It is a far cry from the “barbecue summer” it predicted back in April.

The news will raise questions about the Met Office’s ability to make reliable seasonal forecasts.

But the organisation has defended its record, saying people have already forgotten the hot weather experienced across many parts of Britain in June.

It also highlights the absence of the sort of major floods that blighted 2007 and 2008; and the largely fine weather for the Wimbledon tennis championship, the cricket Tests and the Open golf.

The Met Office also says temperatures have been around or above normal, and that the end of August might be better again.

The real problem for the Met Office is that this is the third summer in a row where its forecast has failed. In 2007, the Met Office chirped: “The summer is yet again likely to be warmer than normal. There are no indications of a particularly wet summer.”

We got downpours and floods in the wettest summer for England and Wales since 1912. Temperatures were below average.

In April 2008, the Met Office forecast: “Summer temperatures are likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or above average.”

That did not prepare people for one of the wettest summers on record with high winds and low sunshine.

In both instances, the Met Office failed to predict the movements of the jet stream – the high-level wind that races round the world 10km above the surface.

The past two years it got stuck above the UK – and that locked a low-pressure system in place which in turn brought misery and rain. That has been happening again this July.

Temperatures in both previous years were dragged down by the Pacific La Nina effect which makes it four times more likely that we will suffer a bad summer in Europe. But this year, the La Nina effect no longer applies.

Read the entire BBC News website article: ‘Met Office cools summer forecast’

See more fun CRN Met Office articles here.

“It should be ignored absolutely. The opposite to whatever the Met Office says in long range has been what happened for the last three years!”

Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeatherAction said today, 23 July:
 
“The Met Office long range forecast attempts at seasonal and world developments totally failed• to predict ANY of the 5 notable weather developments since 2007. They predicted the opposite to what occurred for the wet summers 2007, 2008, and 2009, the icy snowy winter 08/9, and world temperature decline over recent years. On the other hand our WeatherAction Solar Weather Technique predicted all these major situations correctly and did it ahead  of the Met Office prognoses.

Their score of zero out of five is lamentable. It could not be worse. They should stop issuing these reckless ‘forecasts’ which only serve to mislead the public, commerce and emergency authorities and cause unnecessary misery danger and possible death.  

Their forecast for a mild winter in 08/09 disarmed the emergency services and Councils and led directly to the UK running out of road salt, transport chaos and extra road accidents when the snow deluges predicted by us at WeatherAction hit Britain and Ireland. The Met Office stupidity cost the economy billions of pounds.

“The recent heavy rains and weather prospects spell failure for the Met Office forecast of a ‘barbecue summer’ which we advised our own forecast users would fail.   For how much longer will   government, ‘opposition’ and much of commerce continue to follow failed methodology which is without scientific basis?  

“The Met Office long range forecasts will continue to fail because they are founded on the politically motivated false theory of man-made global warming and related computer models. The fact is the world has been cooling for at least 7 years while CO2 has been rapidly rising. Our proven science explains why and shows the world cooling will generally continue at least to 2030 and the world will remain generally cooler than recently  for a hundred years (see below**)
 
“The Met Office ‘forecast’ (issued 23 July) for winter 2009-10 to be probably milder and wetter than average is nonsense and entirely what one would expect them to say. Their religious belief in non-existent man-made Global Warming means they could not say anything different. Their forecast should be ignored absolutely. Statistically speaking the opposite to what they say has a success score of 5/5.

“In the immediate future I suggest the major clothing chains should consider sue-ing the Met Office for misleading advise 3 years running which is now leaving stacks of ‘barbecue summer’ wear falling onto the streets.  And anyone who had an accident in winter because road-salt ran out should sue the Met Office and the local Council for negligence. 

“Politicians of all the major parties should be called to account for their promotion of projects spending and taxation for the green bubble of false value which is the ideological basis for these stupid and damaging forecasts. Gordon Brown’s welcome moves to more accountability of public life are being undermined by the green fools who mis-advise him on environmental matters and he should get rid of them. The dead hand of the promoters of climate hysteria is causing needless economic and personal suffering and unless stopped it will end in tears and leave us all worse off”.

NOTES & LINKS:

**  ‘What Does & Does not Cause Climate Change’  the latest WeatherAction presentation available via http://climaterealists.com/?id=3757 along with a letter to Imperial College Research Strategy Principal Professor Sir Peter Knight.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter.html(released 23 July)

 ”…Early indications are that winter temperatures are likely to be near or above average over much of Europe including the UK. For the UK, Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder *(and wetter) than last year “.  

 19th July 2009 WeatherAction News No 46
Torrential rain, floods thunder & tornadoes 15 -18 July confirm WeatherAction long range Red Weather Warning and dash MetOffice ‘barbecue summer’ hopes. Corresponding Typhoon & Tropical storm forecasts also confirmed – Hong Kong suffering hit (19th July). 

19th June 2009 WeatherAction News No 36
“World cooling has set in and it will stay colder for at least 100 years predicts scientist in forecast breakthrough

8th July 2009 WeatherAction News No 45
Reality will not go away! World leaders must put testable science before ‘Climate Change’ ideology and abandon the ‘Green Bubble’

 End of WA2009 No 48 Thank you

NOAA expects this El Niño to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10.

“Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Niño may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

El Niño’s impacts depend on a variety of factors, such as intensity and extent of ocean warming, and the time of year. Contrary to popular belief, not all effects are negative. On the positive side, El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. In the United States, it typically brings beneficial winter precipitation to the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North, and a reduced risk of Florida wildfires.

El Niño’s negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States. Some past El Niños have also produced severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia.

An El Niño event may significantly diminish ocean productivity off the west coast by limiting weather patterns that cause upwelling, or nutrient circulation in the ocean.  These nutrients are the foundation of a vibrant marine food web and could negatively impact food sources for several types of birds, fish and marine mammals.

In its monthly El Niño diagnostics discussion today, scientists with the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center noted weekly eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the end of June. The most recent El Niño occurred in 2006.

El Niño includes weaker trade winds, increased rainfall over the central tropical Pacific, and decreased rainfall in Indonesia. These vast rainfall patterns in the tropics are responsible for many of El Niño’s global effects on weather patterns. 

NOAA will continue to monitor the rapidly evolving situation in the tropical Pacific, and will provide more detailed information on possible Atlantic hurricane impacts in its updated Seasonal Hurricane Outlook scheduled for release on August 6, 2009.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

NOAA Press Release, July 9, 2009: ‘El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10′

Roger Pielke Sr – Climate Science weblog: ‘Development Of The 2009 El Niño’

Pacific continues to influence climate

30 December 2008

2009 is expected to be one of the top-five warmest years on record, despite continued cooling of huge areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as La Niña.

According to climate scientists at the Met Office and the University of East Anglia the global temperature is forecast to be more than 0.4 °C above the long-term average. This would make 2009 warmer than the year just gone and the warmest since 2005.

During La Niña, cold waters rise to the surface to cool the ocean and land surface temperatures. The 2009 forecast includes an updated decadal forecast using a Met Office climate model. This indicates a rapid return of global temperature to the long-term warming trend, with an increasing probability of record temperatures after 2009.

Professor Chris Folland from the Met Office Hadley Centre said: “Phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña have a significant influence on global surface temperature. Warmer conditions in 2009 are expected because the strong cooling influence of the recent powerful La Niña has given way to a weaker La Niña. Further warming to record levels is likely once a moderate El Niño develops.”

These cyclical influences can mask underlying warming trends as Professor Phil Jones, Director of the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, explains: “The fact that 2009, like 2008, will not break records does not mean that global warming has gone away. What matters is the underlying rate of warming – the period 2001-2007, with an average of 14.44 °C, was 0.21 °C warmer than corresponding values for the period 1991-2000.”

Admin: More unscientific nonsense from Phil Jones – warming cannot be ‘masked’ and why is 1991 to 2000 considered more significant than any other period in the 12,000 year old Holocene? Who says 14C is the ‘correct’ global average temperature and what proof do they have? What’s all that CO2 doing?

Notes

* The Met Office Hadley Centre advises the UK government on climate change research. Its work is, in part, jointly funded by Defra (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs); DECC (Dept for Energy and Climate Change and MoD (Ministry of Defence).
* The Met Office, in collaboration with the University of East Anglia, maintains a global temperature record which is used in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
* Each January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year. The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as El Niño and La Niña, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the cooling influences of industrial aerosol particles, solar effects and natural variations of the oceans.
* The 1961-90 global average mean temperature is 14.0 °C.
* Global temperature for 2009 is expected to be 14.44 °C, the warmest since 2005, when the value was 14.48 °C.
* The warmest year on record is 1998, which was 14.52 °C, a year dominated by an extreme El Niño.
* Over the nine years, 2000-2008, since the Met Office has issued forecasts of annual global temperature the mean value of the forecast error is 0.06 °C.
* The first Met Office decadal forecast to 2014 was issued in 2007.
* Interannual variations of global surface temperature are strongly affected by the warming influences of El Niño and the cooling influences of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. 2008, with a provisionally observed temperature of 14.31 °C compared with the forecast value of 14.37 °C.

See also on CRN: Mystic Met: A Review of UK Met Office Predictions and Statements

Presented below is a chronology of notable predictions via Met Office press releases and media articles starting on January 4th 2007:

2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office.”

On April 11th they issued a press release stating “there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 C … there are no indications of an increased risk of a particularly dry or particularly wet summer.”

This was interpreted by The Guardian as “Britain set to enjoy another sizzling summer.”

On August 31st, The Met announced that summer 2007 was the wettest on record with “normal temperatures,” although his description did not adequately describe the miserable summer – because high temperatures and sunshine were well below normal.

On August 10th, The Met Office announced new climate models, which included modeling of “the effects of sea surface temperatures as well as other factors such as man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, projected changes in the sun’s output and the effects of previous volcanic eruptions”. The same press release forecast that “2014 is likely to be 0.3 C warmer than 2004.”

In fact, global temperatures in 2007 dropped nearly 0.8 C according to satellite data, one of the sharpest drops on record. In order to hit The Met’s 2014 prediction, there will have to be a large increase over the next few years.

2008

Clearly, the Met Office didn’t want to repeat the 2007 mistake of predicting the warmest ever recorded year globally in 2008, so the press release of 3th January  was entitled, ‘Global temperature 2008: Another top-ten year,’ stating, “2008 is set to be cooler globally than recent years say Met Office and University of East Anglia climate scientists, but is still forecast to be one of the top-ten warmest years.”

On April 3rd the Met made their annual UK summer forecast — “The coming summer is expected to be a ‘typical British summer’, according to long-range forecasts issued today. Summer temperatures across the UK are more likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or above average for the three months of summer.”

On August 29th The Met Office reported that the summer of 2008 was “one of the wettest on record across the UK.”

This is how The Independent described the UK summer – “It has been a miserable summer for bugs as well as people…The combined effect of low temperatures and rain has presented Britain’s invertebrates with a double whammy.”

On September 22nd The Guardian reported the Met Office claim that, “Anyone who thinks global warming has stopped has their head in the sand,” which referred to climate sceptic Nigel Lawson and attempted to play down the fact that there has been no global warming trend since 2002.

On September 25th the Met Office issued a press release entitled, ‘Trend of mild winters continues’ stating, “The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year.” This was qualified with, “In contrast to last year’s exceptionally mild winter, this year is likely to feel somewhat colder and although the forecast of a milder winter is good news, we should still be prepared for the risk of colder spells at times.”

On 25th November this forecast was updated: A cold start to winter, “The latest update to the Met Office winter forecast suggests that although the coming winter will have temperatures near or above average, it is very likely that December will be colder than normal.”

On 6th December there was an article in The Guardian by James Randerson entitled, ‘Explainer: Coolest year since 2000.’

The article reads:

“This year is set to be the coolest since 2000, according to a preliminary estimate of global average temperature that is due to be released next week by the Met Office. The global average for 2008 should come in close to 14.3C, which is 0.14C below the average temperature for 2001-07.

The relatively chilly temperatures compared with recent years are not evidence that global warming is slowing, say climate scientists at the Met Office. “Absolutely not,” said Dr Peter Stott, the manager of understanding and attributing climate change at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre. “If we are going to understand climate change we need to look at long-term trends.”

Prof Myles Allen at Oxford University, who runs the climateprediction.net website, said he feared climate sceptics would overinterpret the figure: “You can bet your life there will be a lot of fuss about what a cold year it is. Actually no, it’s not been that cold a year, but the human memory is not very long. We are used to warm years.”

The Met Office had predicted 2008 would be cooler than recent years due to a La Niña event, characterised by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean – the mirror image of the El Niño climate cycle.

Allen was presenting the data on this year’s global average temperature at the Appleton Space Conference at Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, near Didcot, yesterday. The 14.3C figure is based on data from January to October. When the Met Office makes its formal announcement next week they will incorporate data from November. “[The figure] will differ from it, but it won’t differ massively,” said Stott.

Assuming the final figure is close to 14.3C then 2008 will be the 10th hottest year on record. Hottest was 1998, followed by 2005, 2003 and 2002.

In March a team of climate scientists at Kiel University predicted that natural variation would mask the 0.3C warming predicted by the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change over the next decade.”

Roger Pielke Sr performed a reality check:

The statement that “The relatively chilly temperatures compared with recent years are not evidence that global warming is slowing” mixes up regional and global temperatures changes. Also, there has been no global warming in the last 4 years (at least; e.g. see). Global warming has stopped for the last few years.

The statement that “In March a team of climate scientists at Kiel University predicted that natural variation would mask the 0.3C warming predicted by the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change over the next decade” is scientifically incorrect. Heating cannot be ”masked”.

As given in the examples, the news releases provided by the UK Met Office make for interesting reading and show the complexity and difficulty of skillful season climate prediction.

Thus why should there be any confidence in the forecasts regarding climate change in the longer term?

The Daily Telegraph published an article on 13th December entitled, “Weather:Coldest start to winter since 1976 – Britain has endured its coldest start to winter in more than 30 years” by Stephen Adams.

An excerpt from the article reads:

“Since December 1, the meteorological start to the season, the average UK temperature has been only 35.1F (1.7C), well below the long-term 1971-2000 average of 40.5F (4.7C) for the first 10 days of the month.

It is the coldest start to December since 1976, when the average was 33.4F (0.8C).

Arctic and continental winds have dominated the weather since mid November, bringing colder conditions than normal.”

This very cold period certainly was not predicted by the UK Met Office.

But wait! There’s more climate alarmism in an article published on 19th December, 2008 in The Times entitled: ‘Met Office warn of ‘catastrophic’ rise in temperature’

Undeterred by recent short-term failed predictions, the article sub-heading states, “A new study by the Met Office warns that the world could warm by more than 5C in the next 90 years, if emissions keep on rising. This would be catastrophic for the environment and for humanity. Dr Vicky Pope, Head of Climate Change Advice at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre explains the science.”

Well Vicky Pope, why should CRN or anyone else believe a word you say?

Sources:

Guest post on Watts Up With That? by Steven Goddard entitled, ‘UK’s Met Office blows another summer forecast’

Roger Pielke Sr’s Climate Science weblog

Met Office news release archive